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 traffic forecasting


Learning from Complexity: Exploring Dynamic Sample Pruning of Spatio-Temporal Training

Chen, Wei, Chen, Junle, Wu, Yuqian, Liang, Yuxuan, Zhou, Xiaofang

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Spatio-temporal forecasting is fundamental to intelligent systems in transportation, climate science, and urban planning. However, training deep learning models on the massive, often redundant, datasets from these domains presents a significant computational bottleneck. Existing solutions typically focus on optimizing model architectures or optimizers, while overlooking the inherent inefficiency of the training data itself. This conventional approach of iterating over the entire static dataset each epoch wastes considerable resources on easy-to-learn or repetitive samples. In this paper, we explore a novel training-efficiency techniques, namely learning from complexity with dynamic sample pruning, ST-Prune, for spatio-temporal forecasting. Through dynamic sample pruning, we aim to intelligently identify the most informative samples based on the model's real-time learning state, thereby accelerating convergence and improving training efficiency. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world spatio-temporal datasets show that ST-Prune significantly accelerates the training speed while maintaining or even improving the model performance, and it also has scalability and universality.


Supplementary Material for Chartalist: Labeled Graph Datasets for UTXO and Account-based Blockchains 1 RansomwareDataset 1.1 BitcoinHeist features

Neural Information Processing Systems

Aou(n), where an output address au receives Aou(n) coins. On the Bitcoin network, an address may appear multiple times with different inputs and outputs. An address u that appears in a transaction at time t can be denoted as atu. Thenumberofblocksmeasuresthe speed in the 24-hour window that contains a transaction involving the coin. Second, temporal information of transactions, such as the local time, has been useful to cluster criminal transactions.


Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting

Neural Information Processing Systems

Modeling complex spatial and temporal correlations in the correlated time series data is indispensable for understanding the traffic dynamics and predicting the future status of an evolving traffic system. Recent works focus on designing complicated graph neural network architectures to capture shared patterns with the help of pre-defined graphs. In this paper, we argue that learning node-specific patterns is essential for traffic forecasting while pre-defined graph is avoidable. To this end, we propose two adaptive modules for enhancing Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) with new capabilities: 1) a Node Adaptive Parameter Learning (NAPL) module to capture node-specific patterns; 2) a Data Adaptive Graph Generation (DAGG) module to infer the inter-dependencies among different traffic series automatically. We further propose an Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (AGCRN) to capture fine-grained spatial and temporal correlations in traffic series automatically based on the two modules and recurrent networks. Our experiments on two real-world traffic datasets show AGCRN outperforms state-of-the-art by a significant margin without pre-defined graphs about spatial connections.


HSTMixer: A Hierarchical MLP-Mixer for Large-Scale Traffic Forecasting

Wang, Yongyao, Wang, Jingyuan, Yu, Xie, Ji, Jiahao, Li, Chao

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traffic forecasting task is significant to modern urban management. Recently, there is growing attention on large-scale forecasting, as it better reflects the complexity of real-world traffic networks. However, existing models often exhibit quadratic computational complexity, making them impractical for large-scale real-world scenarios. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, Hierarchical Spatio-Temporal Mixer (HSTMixer), which leverages an all-MLP architecture for efficient and effective large-scale traffic forecasting. HSTMixer employs a hierarchical spatiotemporal mixing block to extract multi-resolution features through bottom-up aggregation and top-down propagation. Furthermore, an adaptive region mixer generates transformation matrices based on regional semantics, enabling our model to dynamically capture evolving spatiotemporal patterns for different regions. Extensive experiments conducted on four large-scale real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method not only achieves state-of-the-art performance but also exhibits competitive computational efficiency.


City-Conditioned Memory for Multi-City Traffic and Mobility Forecasting

Du, Wenzhang

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deploying spatio-temporal forecasting models across many cities is difficult: traffic networks differ in size and topology, data availability can vary by orders of magnitude, and new cities may provide only a short history of logs. Existing deep traffic models are typically trained per city and backbone, creating high maintenance cost and poor transfer to data-scarce cities. We ask whether a single, backbone-agnostic layer can condition on "which city this sequence comes from", improve accuracy in full- and low-data regimes, and support better cross-city adaptation with minimal code changes. We propose CityCond, a light-weight city-conditioned memory layer that augments existing spatio-temporal backbones. CityCond combines a city-ID encoder with an optional shared memory bank (CityMem). Given a city index and backbone hidden states, it produces city-conditioned features fused through gated residual connections. We attach CityCond to five representative backbones (GRU, TCN, Transformer, GNN, STGCN) and evaluate three regimes: full-data, low-data, and cross-city few-shot transfer on METR-LA and PEMS-BAY. We also run auxiliary experiments on SIND, a drone-based multi-agent trajectory dataset from a signalized intersection in Tianjin (we focus on pedestrian tracks). Across more than fourteen model variants and three random seeds, CityCond yields consistent improvements, with the largest gains for high-capacity backbones such as Transformers and STGCNs. CityMem reduces Transformer error by roughly one third in full-data settings and brings substantial gains in low-data and cross-city transfer. On SIND, simple city-ID conditioning modestly improves low-data LSTM performance. CityCond can therefore serve as a reusable design pattern for scalable, multi-city forecasting under realistic data constraints.


LargeST: A Benchmark Dataset for Large-Scale Traffic Forecasting

Neural Information Processing Systems

However, the promising results achieved on current public datasets may not be applicable to practical scenarios due to limitations within these datasets. First, the limited sizes of them may not reflect the real-world scale of traffic networks. Second, the temporal coverage of these datasets is typically short, posing hurdles in studying long-term patterns and acquiring sufficient samples for training deep models.


HyperD: Hybrid Periodicity Decoupling Framework for Traffic Forecasting

Shao, Minlan, Zhang, Zijian, Wang, Yili, Dai, Yiwei, Shen, Xu, Wang, Xin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate traffic forecasting plays a vital role in intelligent transportation systems, enabling applications such as congestion control, route planning, and urban mobility optimization. However, traffic forecasting remains challenging due to two key factors: (1) complex spatial dependencies arising from dynamic interactions between road segments and traffic sensors across the network, and (2) the coexistence of multi-scale periodic patterns (e.g., daily and weekly periodic patterns driven by human routines) with irregular fluctuations caused by unpredictable events (e.g., accidents, weather, or construction). To tackle these challenges, we propose HyperD (Hybrid Periodic Decoupling), a novel framework that decouples traffic data into periodic and residual components. The periodic component is handled by the Hybrid Periodic Representation Module, which extracts fine-grained daily and weekly patterns using learnable periodic embeddings and spatial-temporal attention. The residual component, which captures non-periodic, high-frequency fluctuations, is modeled by the Frequency-Aware Residual Representation Module, leveraging complex-valued MLP in frequency domain. To enforce semantic separation between the two components, we further introduce a Dual-View Alignment Loss, which aligns low-frequency information with the periodic branch and high-frequency information with the residual branch. Extensive experiments on four real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that HyperD achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy, while offering superior robustness under disturbances and improved computational efficiency compared to existing methods.


Event-CausNet: Unlocking Causal Knowledge from Text with Large Language Models for Reliable Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Niu, Luyao, Wang, Zepu, Guan, Shuyi, Liu, Yang, Sun, Peng

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While spatio-temporal Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) excel at modeling recurring traffic patterns, their reliability plummets during non-recurring events like accidents. This failure occurs because GNNs are fundamentally correlational models, learning historical patterns that are invalidated by the new causal factors introduced during disruptions. To address this, we propose Event-CausNet, a framework that uses a Large Language Model to quantify unstructured event reports, builds a causal knowledge base by estimating average treatment effects, and injects this knowledge into a dual-stream GNN-LSTM network using a novel causal attention mechanism to adjust and enhance the forecast. Experiments on a real-world dataset demonstrate that Event-CausNet achieves robust performance, reducing prediction error (MAE) by up to 35.87%, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art baselines. Our framework bridges the gap between correlational models and causal reasoning, providing a solution that is more accurate and transferable, while also offering crucial interpretability, providing a more reliable foundation for real-world traffic management during critical disruptions.


M3-Net: A Cost-Effective Graph-Free MLP-Based Model for Traffic Prediction

Jin, Guangyin, Lai, Sicong, Hao, Xiaoshuai, Zhang, Mingtao, Zhang, Jinlei

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Achieving accurate traffic prediction is a fundamental but crucial task in the development of current intelligent transportation systems.Most of the mainstream methods that have made breakthroughs in traffic prediction rely on spatio-temporal graph neural networks, spatio-temporal attention mechanisms, etc. The main challenges of the existing deep learning approaches are that they either depend on a complete traffic network structure or require intricate model designs to capture complex spatio-temporal dependencies. These limitations pose significant challenges for the efficient deployment and operation of deep learning models on large-scale datasets. To address these challenges, we propose a cost-effective graph-free Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) based model M3-Net for traffic prediction. Our proposed model not only employs time series and spatio-temporal embeddings for efficient feature processing but also first introduces a novel MLP-Mixer architecture with a mixture of experts (MoE) mechanism. Extensive experiments conducted on multiple real datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model in terms of prediction performance and lightweight deployment.Our code is available at https://github.com/jinguangyin/M3_NET


Capturing Complex Spatial-Temporal Dependencies in Traffic Forecasting: A Self-Attention Approach

Chenghong, Zheng, Deng, Zongyin, Cheng, Liu, Simin, Xiong, Deshi, Di, Guanyao, Li

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the problem of traffic forecasting, aiming to predict the inflow and outflow of a region in the subsequent time slot. The problem is complex due to the intricate spatial and temporal interdependence among regions. Prior works study the spatial and temporal dependency in a decouple manner, failing to capture their joint effect. In this work, we propose ST-SAM, a novel and efficient Spatial-Temporal Self-Attention Model for traffic forecasting. ST-SAM uses a region embedding layer to learn time-specific embedding from traffic data for regions. Then, it employs a spatial-temporal dependency learning module based on self-attention mechanism to capture the joint spatial-temporal dependency for both nearby and faraway regions. ST-SAM entirely relies on self-attention to capture both local and global spatial-temporal correlations, which make it effective and efficient. Extensive experiments on two real world datasets show that ST-SAM is substantially more accurate and efficient than the state-of-the-art approaches (with an average improvement of up to 15% on RMSE, 17% on MAPE, and 32 times on training time in our experiments).